The future of Surface Duo 3
When the Surface Duo came out Sept 10th, 2020 it was pretty much one of a kind. Yes, the Z Fold 2 would be released only a week or so later, but one could argue Duo was doing something distinctly different from that device. The market for foldables was incredibly thin. By the time Duo 2 was released a year later, things were starting to heat up, but there was still really only one "competitor" in the space. You were largely either going with the folding OLED of Samsung or dual screens of Microsoft. Granted, most people were choosing Samsung.
Now, as it appears that Microsoft is abandoning the dual screen concept altogether with the Surface Duo 3 I am pondering the road taken and where it will lead. At one point Microsoft believed so fully in mobile dual monitors that they planned to launch a laptop style device; Neo. And yet, only a few years later the concept is fully in the rearview mirror. What's worse is that the abandonment of the idea isn't even that distant. Word is there was not only a nearly complete Duo 2 Go with dual screens, but also a Duo 3 concept which preserved the feature.
This means that the decision to pivot towards a single folding OLED screen is as recent as 2021 or even 2022, depending on who you ask. What are the ramifications of making this call so late in the game? Obviously, time will tell, but we can speculate. The first thing to consider is the effect it will have on those of us who already bought a Duo or Duo 2 *because* it was dual screens. How many of us will make the move to a Duo 3 that abandons the design we were attracted to in the first place?
As Microsoft leaves behind two screens users may also feel like Microsoft is leaving them behind as they target the mass market with a more typical device. There may be no way for Microsoft to carry their niche Duo fanbase along with them as they try to enter the mass market. Perhaps an even bigger obstacle is the emergence of several new competitors into the folding phone space. When Duo launched there was only the Z Fold, but by the time Duo 3 arrives, the US will have seen launched by OnePlus and Google with Duo 3 likely last to the party.
Pivoting so late in the game, effectively starting over at the 11th hour appears to be leading to a launch that will happen after all their now direct competitors have released their devices. Who will hold off to wait for Duo 3? A recent poll I ran on my own channel, which was based largely on Surface Duo users indicates that many are prepared to jump ship in the near future. My Duo videos are also beginning to slip in their popularity with Pixel Fold and Z Fold videos picking up significantly.
Moreover, that long delay has left users with little to be excited for in regard to Surface Duo. There hasn't been a new one in over a year and the next might still be months away. The community has gone from a simmer-approaching-boil to a pot with the eye turned off. I think there are two ways to look at this situation. Microsoft either bet on the wrong horse and was too slow to realize it, or they lacked the fortitude to put their full weight behind the dual screen concept, halfheartedly trudging it forward only to quit halfway.
It would be very hard for me to imagine a third option - one where Microsoft succeeds with Duo 3 and stands as real competition for the onslaught of more mature and more established foldables which are certainly coming. The story of Surface Duo will likely be that of a curiosity, not the revolutionary device I believe it could have been.